Happy & Healthy New Year! We are two weeks into January and have the entire year ahead of us. What are you most excited about this year?
The economy? Looks like 2020 will be another good year with zero chance of recession. And that means the stock market should stay strong too.
The elections? There are plenty of elections to go around but we know the big one is coming in November. Perhaps March the Democrats will decide who their candidate will be. Will it be Biden or Warren? Suddenly Warren is promising all student debt to be wiped off the books to the tune of $1.8 Trillion. In the end, Trump will prevail and the conservatives will roll on for another four years.
The weather? Freezing in LA and LAS, warm in Detroit and who cares? We did have a record rainfall in January already but we haven’t seen serious snow since early November. Very happy not to own an outdoor business like a ski resort.
5G? Yep, it is finally coming and Apple will unveil its first ever 5G phones later this year. But the real fun won’t begin until 2021 and beyond. The next decade will bring on more change than the previous three combined.
The beauty business? All depends what hat you are wearing. Consumers are still in love with beauty and always will be. Ulta continues to open more stores and department stores continue to lose market share. Coty & Revlon are still looking for buyers and the pro business will continue to shrink.
What I am most excited about is the opportunity TNG has to continue to increase its presence and organically grow its brands. EMMA Beauty is all the rage and just getting started. Ginger Lily Farms Botanicals is in the right spot at the right time. And ForPro Professional Collection continues to grow its #1 position among salon professionals. Everyone is loving thebeautybook Spring 2020 edition and nothing like celebrating 35 years in business.
Tesla just roared past $500 and on its way to $600 per share, worth more than both GM and Ford combined. Soon, it will be worth more than GM, Ford and Fiat combined. The worst performing auto maker over the past 20 years has been Ford, any surprise that they own the Detroit Lions, the worst ranked team in football?
Howard Stern is one of my mentors not because he can say f—k anytime he wants and get away with it, but he just turned 66 and still loves what he is doing. Jimmy Buffett is another and he just turned 71. Love what you do and life is good. And sorry Howard, if you ate your veggies instead of shrimp pasta every night you wouldn’t need Metamucil.
Delta reported record revenues and profits. I can attest to that, its planes are always full just like the airports. Instead of going to malls, people are traveling everywhere. It is amazing to think that in four hours time, you can be sitting on a beach in Mexico from Detroit OR just arriving in Petoskey. Hmm, what sounds better to you? If you are JB, you are in the minority!
Have you heard of the World War Zero website? The global climate activists are doing their best to stir the pot, then again, ask them for evidence on their findings, and you understand why this war is going to go nowhere. Most interesting? Americans were surveyed how much they would be willing to spend to fight global warming. How much do you think? $100 per month? $10 per month? The answer was $1 per month. That tells you the priority level. We have more important things to contemplate, like getting into seeing the doctor for our latest ailment!
I know, I know, I know! Where did the time go? Between now and my last blog, what has happened that we missed or have wanted to miss? Not much.
But hey, that isn’t why I haven’t blogged since the dinosaurs were roaming 65 million years ago, I have been traveling. In fact, just got back from Vegas and attended a fab wedding (my assistant Lindsay and her now husband Paul) and then drove to the Grand Canyon for a couple days and then drove to Lake Powell, Utah for a few more days. What is amazing is that I must have been to Vegas more than 100 times but never to the Grand Canyon. For some reason I think you too have never been which may explain that the average age of visitors had to be early 70’s. Canes, walkers and wheelchairs were all there and my guess is everyone really wants to see the GC in their lifetime and eventually, we all get there. I have to say, the scenery is awesome and breathtaking.
Lake Powell is located in Utah but for all intent purposes, Page, AZ and is mostly Indian reservation land. Lake Powell features many “fingers” throughout the lake that make it very cool with plenty of natural sand beaches for houseboats to hang out.
Perhaps one of the coolest tours was that of Upper Antelope Canyon, located on the Navajo Indian Reserve and only accessible by a licensed Navajo tour guide. The canyon with the sun coming through is magical and certainly worth a visit.
My favorite pastime is traveling. You get to experience so many different geographical settings, diverse people and of course, local food and wine (and most recently, bourbon). I learned that Utah is not the best place for alcoholics. The place we stayed at told us each drink cannot exceed 1.5 oz. and is measured and controlled by the government. So if you want a double, you have to order two drinks, and have two people at the table. And just to think that alcohol is legal.
Now let’s talk some business. Oh, you want to see a picture of Lindsay in her wedding dress first? Why not, it is not often you are a bride in Vegas and can wear a wedding dress on the Strip, in restaurants and bars and even the pool. What I find is so amazing is that there are so many brides walking around Vegas, tourists don’t even look anymore. Then again, no one looks at anyone because their eyes are glued to their smartphones.
Cosmoprof North America is coming up in July and at one time was the barometer of the pro beauty business (many of us remember when it was called the BBSI before the PBA sold the show to Cosmoprof and the show was actually held twice a year). Now the show is less about pro beauty and more about retail incubators and packaging companies. Can anyone tell me of importance who will be exhibiting and attending? TNG is not even taking a stand this year as we join CND, OPI and so many other companies. No doubt about it, Cosmoprof is an open book of the state of the business.
Tariffs yes, tariffs no? Right now, Trump is putting small and medium businesses at risk including American farmers. With Amazon the biggest online retailer and in control of most pricing, pass through of increases will be difficult at best. That means businesses like TNG will eat much of the tariff increases and eventually pass on some of the costs to consumers or stop selling some products altogether. As many CEO’s can attest, survival of the fittest is at its peak right now.
Steven Tamares, CEO of Bed Bath & Beyond, finally fired. I mention this only because activist shareholders are more and more involved in public companies and demanding their way or the highway. Tamares needed to go years ago and nearly killed Bed Bath’s business. The question now is can they be saved which is the same question being asked about Pier I, Office Depot, Staples and so many others. And one CEO I would not want to be right now is Chris Brinkman, head of Sally Beauty Company.
With summer finally arriving next month, I’m loving the new EMMA Beauty Summer Collection featuring the best neon colors that can’t be beat. After a terrible spring, we really need a fabulous summer and what better way than painting your nails with colors including Slice of Heaven and Sour Apple Passion. Batch 0719 is just as electrifying!
Alas, looks like hip replacement surgery is in my near future. If Nick Saban can do it so can I. I guess putting on more than 15,000 miles running, more than 10,000 miles bicycling, more than 5,000 yoga classes and countless other exercises like aerobics did its trick. But in the end, I would do it all over again.
Welcome to March! February was as brutal of a month weather-wise that could be, from rainy and cold CA to wintery NY. In Michigan we got to experience the polar vortex at –38F, freezing rain, snow, rain, blue skies, 50F, and everything in-between. Spring is less than 3 weeks away, hooray.
The salon suite phenomena is an express train on steroids. Sola suites has hundreds of locations and opening more. My Suites already has more than 100 locations and wants to open a couple hundred more. Plus there are plenty others like Phenix, and Premier not to mention individual salons that are all booth rental. Let’s suggest each suite has 25 tenants and with just 1000 suites across the USA, that would account for 25,000 hairdressers (small percentage are nail and spa). With the growth plans in place over the next few years, perhaps 70%-80% of hairdressers will be renting space and only exclusive and franchise salons will remain.
The big question to ask, “If the salon industry thrived for 100 years, what factors came into place to allow salon suites to prosper?” JB, why not chime in on this one!
Nails are alive and well and in fact, I see a bit of the 80’s resurfacing. Nail franchisors see huge opportunities and selling franchises as fast as possible. Franchise owners/nail techs love the business concept and know that women love getting mani’s & pedi’s but want a pleasant and clean environment to get their services done. This is very good news indeed for TNG and I love the fact nail techs make a great income doing what they do best. I think what is making this happen is that Vietnamese salons have peaked as women from Vietnam no longer want to come to the USA to do nails. Vietnam is thriving and growing 50% faster than China and manufacturing is soaring. Women have much more opportunity to establish careers than ever before and they are taking advantage of it. Next trend: Beauty schools catering to nails and establishing curriculum to meet the growing demand.
Speaking of nails, I have to mention EMMA Beauty. No brand is having as much fun as EMMA and everyone is loving its brand message targeted towards Millennial’s and healthy living.
So far so good: No government shutdown and no additional tariffs. In fact, looks like China and the USA are going to strike a trade deal and perhaps even rescind the current 10% surcharge. If so that would continue to do wonders for the stock market which is having its best two month performance since 1987. S&P 3150 by yearend is very likely.
Detroit is rocking and rolling with the opening of the Shinola hotel. You know Detroit is hot when they charge $37 for valet parking and $28 for a truffle pizza. Can you imagine those prices just a few years back? Although it does cost upwards of $70 to valet in Chicago, just saying.
The last issue of Nailpro magazine was less than 90 pages printed on super thin paper and cover stock. While nails are hot, trade magazines are not. And did you see the last issue of Beauty Store Business? Instead of being oversized, downsized to regular magazine size and thin as a mint. What is the future of rep shows? Two shows this year combined into one and dismal results. No doubt booth renters are buying most of their stuff on Amazon and is it any wonder Amazon will generate more than $20 billion in advertising revenue next year?
Lyft is beating Uber to the IPO market? Which one do you think will win the ultimate prize?