Why Arizona Has Immigration All Wrong, Part 2
Thursday, May 6th, 2010
Loading ...Yesterday the topic was Greece, the EU and why what happens across the Atlantic matters. BTW: Switzerland was the correct answer to yesterday’s question.
One of the biggest issues going on in the USA today is immigration. We all know what is going on in Arizona and when you have college students protesting, you know there are issues.
According to George Friedman, author of The Next 100 Years, Arizona has it all wrong. In fact, now is the time for the USA to come up with a sensible immigration policy. But to understand why, you have to go back into history.
First, we know that virtually all early American’s immigrated from Europe, Russia and other Eastern bloc countries. This is one reason why we have the best food and culture. The USA was a melting pot of immigrants.
In the period of 1700 through early 1900, most families in the USA survived on farming. The average woman had 8 children, but many died due to disease before age 21. Life expectancy was 40. The family needed children to work the farm and they started working at the age of 6. Population expanded as settlers moved across the USA. Women’s key function was to have babies and take care of the house.
Without getting into too much detail, the next 50 years from 1900-1950 changed drastically as the USA turned from a farming country to industrial country with the introduction of trains, cars, roads, factories and so forth. Women had fewer children since they weren’t needed on the farm and survival rates after birth increased. Women’s primary role was still the same.
After World War II, the next 50 years changed again and brought us to where we are today. Women now have on average 2.1 children and worldwide, the number is closer to 1.7. Women’s primary role is no longer to stay home and have kids. In fact, there are now more working women than men in the USA. This had had remarkable consequences.
USA and world population growth is actually in a decline and will continue for another 50 years. This is bad news. One reason why is that largest group of the population, Baby Boomers, is getting ready to retire. Due to the economy, they have put off retirement and are working longer which is bad news for the 20’s generation looking to advance.
Eventually the Boomers will retire, the 20’s generation will be in their 30’s and the most unlikely of events will occur: Boomers will be spending their retirement money consuming more goods than ever and the generations behind them will have to produce those goods for them along with the rest of the population. The problem is that there will not be enough workers to supply the needs and every country including the USA will be desperate for workers come 2020.
In 2020, countries will be begging for immigrants and even offer incentives. Those trained in technical skills and general labor will be in highest demand.
We already see the effects of history and 2020 today. Men are having more difficulty than ever getting jobs as women are taking them in earnest. Companies only want to hired skilled and talented labor and only when as needed. Unemployment is stubbornly high because of this.
The paradox is that we have high unemployment today and no one wants more immigrants because they will take available jobs. While Arizona is focused on Mexican immigrants (Mexico is a strategic ally that sooner than later will emerge), there are plenty more immigrants from Asia that are trained and skilled that want to come as well. And the irony is that due to our tough policy, many immigrants who did come to the USA to take advanced learning are now leaving the USA and taking those newfound skills to their country.
Once unemployment drops significantly, we will see a new take on immigration. In the meantime, many thought the world would never hold the population just like many thought we would run out of food, oil, and other commodities. History repeats itself and cycles seem to cleanse perceptions. Interesting.
Happy Thursday!
