by Larry | May 4, 2022 | Ama, Amazon, Amazon.com, Cosm, Cosmoprof Las Vegas, Cosmoprof North America, Cosmoprof Vegas, ForPro Expert Reusable 100% Organic & Bamboo Cotton Rounds, Sephora, ULTA |
Cosmoprof North America show is only a couple months away and less than 50% of the booths are sold. Most of the “exclusive” areas like natural, CBD and others are empty. None of the major hair or nail companies are exhibiting. Can anyone tell me why the show is still going on and who will possibly attend? Cosmoprof is a true indicator of the professional beauty market and its demise. This show used to be held twice annually due to demand, new manufacturer’s entering the space, new distributors excited to sell to salons and overall growth of the industry.
What factors precipitated the demise of the pro beauty industry? I have been on this subject for a few years and it is so sad because this was once a vibrant and exciting industry. Why? It featured entrepreneurs eager to get their new products into the market; entrepreneurs went to beauty school to learn their craft whether it be hair, nails or spa and then went to open full-service salons; consumers eager to enjoy being pampered and spending time and money on beauty services and products.
Eager to cash in on the explosive growth was retailers. Diversion was already a big issue but never controlled as manufacturers loved the extra sales. Diversion was the first nail in the coffin. Then Sephora opened in 1998, Amazon Pro Beauty in 1999 and Ulta in 2000. This was the second nail in the coffin.
The third nail in the coffin was the manufacture rep groups, the same ones that called on distributors (and ironically still do). They saw the opportunity with the Big 3 and went after them. When this happened, diversion was no longer an issue for manufacturers, they went direct and controlled their products and prices. Who got screwed? Distributors and salons. Call it greed, call it whatever you want, bottom line, it’s business.
Fast forward to today and what is state of the pro beauty business? Most full-service salons are at 50-60% capacity due to the fact so many of their employees quit and moved to booth rental and even more recently due to the pandemic, work at home. Many salons have closed. Salons and spas are begging for nail techs and massage therapists. Spas that are open are only open for limited hours due to staffing issues. Salon retail is dead in the water. As I predicted long ago, services are what matters and demand for services, especially at the high end, are as good as ever.
Amazon shares are now on sale for less than $2500 a share and you don’t have to be a Prime member to buy them. What happened? They reported their slowest sales growth since 2001; Bezos bet a few billion on Rivian and that bet failed; supply chain and inflation issues; and overcapacity. However they are on track to crack $450 billion in sales this year and most likely $500 billion in 2023. Their cloud business is still soaring and their advertising unit is mostly all profits. If there is any company I would not bet against, it’s Amazon.
It’s time for a commercial break and here is one of our latest products that I love, love, love. ForPro Expert Reusable 100% Organic & Bamboo Cotton Pads are best in class and actually made with certified organic cotton. I did a bit of research and found that virtually all reusable cotton pads that claim to be organic are not. Same goes with cotton rounds. These are now available!
I was at Kroger shopping and checking out baked Frito Lay chips and a Frito Lay stocker was in the aisle. I picked up the bag of chips for $3.99 and said to him that bag is so small, it’s like a snack bag now. He said to me, “July 1 we have another price increase coming” and he couldn’t tell me if the bag was going to get smaller. Brownberry bread is over $5.00 a loaf. Food inflation is here.
It’s no wonder large chain restaurants are doing well. In some instances, it’s cheaper to go out if you don’t order alcohol. Chains have buying power and are better at keeping employees. Alas, small restaurants and small chains are closing at a record pace and this is after they survived the pandemic.
If a Supreme Court document is leaked, is anything sacred and trustful anymore?
Trump is licking his chops after a couple nice primary wins. If you had your choice of Trump or DeSantis, who would you choose?
Have you thought about chartering a bus? Don’t! Here is another industry decimated by the pandemic. What once cost $3000/month to insure a bus is now more than $7,000/month. Diesel is more than $6/gallon but the real pain is that there are no bus drivers around. It’s not like Generation Z kids are graduating high school and bragging that they are going to be a bus driver. Average pay is $200/day regardless if the driver drives two, four or eight hours and some companies are paying $300 and over just to get drivers. But even at that, they can’t find them.
Happy Wednesday!
by Larry | Dec 28, 2018 | American Salon magazine, Cosmoprof, Modern Salon magazine, Nailpro magazine, NAILS magazine, Salon Centric, Sephora, THE IND, The Industry Source, THEBEAUTYBOOK SPRING 2019, Trump, ULTA |
This is one of my favorite times of the year: Christmas has finally come and gone and the days up to New Year’s are slow, traffic is light and most people are off work and enjoying. It’s the perfect time to think about the upcoming year. As one of my loyal readers you know I have thoughts on most topics so for my last blog of 2018, let me share some thoughts for 2019.
Trump: Trump lost the House and now is in his West Palm Beach self-contained resort pouting and using the federal government as hostage. He wants a border wall or the 800,000 government employees be damned. Oh, let’s not forget about the 200,000 contractors also affected. If this was the only event worth watching that would be enough. But no, we have to contend with China/USA trade tariffs due March 1 (my thoughts with 2020 on Trump’s mind and the stock market down from the start of the year, an agreement will be made, however, not sure the 10% will be rescinded even if the agreement is made). Trump certainly ranks as one of the most dangerous presidents America has ever had, he represents the wild card for 2019.
China: Premier Xi Pinjing has made it known that he wants his country to be the #1 player in the world by 2025. At the age of 65, he has a lifetime commitment to make it happen. This is one reason why Trump is playing China so hard, especially with IT and trade secret theft. America must remain the #1 player on the world stage and do just about everything within legal means to keep Xi’s ambition at bay. 2019 will test both players.
Business: While consumer confidence hit a 5-month low this month, retail sales were at the highest level in more than a decade. Go figure. Housing remains weak, oil is at historical low prices with a glut that won’t go away anytime soon. But the few corporations that are left are doing better than ever and if the tariffs are resolved amicably, we should see the stock market go up 10% and corporate profits continue to rise. Everyone is predicting the start of a recession in 2020 but as we know, everyone is traditionally wrong. With student debt hitting a new record of $1.5T and corporate debt at all-time highs, the next recession could be nasty. Then again, let’s see what the Fed does with interest rate hikes in 2019.
Beauty: Baby boomers, Millennial’s and even the X, Y and Z generation all have one thing in common: They love beauty products. The question will be in 2019, who gets the business? Ulta will continue to drive sales growth opening at least 100 new stores and taking market share from Sephora. With traditional malls in decline the question for Sephora is how are they going to redeploy and become relevant again to shoppers that hate visiting malls.
Pro beauty business continues on its path to being neutralized. Amazon has signed up just about every major player so between them and Ulta, consumers have no need to buy retail products at salons. Booth rental continues to explode and independent contractors who rent space make less money and receive no benefits. When was the last retail hair brand introduced? Both Cosmoprof and Salon Centric will operate more stores with fewer DSC’s and offer less education. Cash & carry trade shows are so yesterday but the two remaining ones make so much money for the organizers, they will continue as long as booths and tickets sell.
Pro magazines will continue to crash and burn, they are already ghosts of their past that no one reads anymore. With both NAILS and NAILPRO under 100 pages and only surviving because Danny Hale has a sweetheart deal to advertise 10 pages monthly. Besides, innovation in the nail business mimics the rest of the industry and no wonder publications such as MODERN and AMERICAN are so thin you wonder why they even publish.
TNG: What can I say, 33 years and still going strong. Our brands are now #1 in most categories and in 2019 alone, we are introducing more than 200 new products. Innovation remains key and my next blog will talk about some of my favorite new products. EMMA continues to delight and is now one of the top brands on Instagram. Thebeautybook Spring 2019 catalog is one of my favorites and an integral part of what makes THE INDUSTRY SOURCE the best-in-class pro beauty distributor year-after-year.
Thank you for hanging around all these years. The beauty of all this is that beauty truly is timeless and I could not be luckier to be involved in this consumer category. Beauty will continue to evolve and so will TNG.
Happy New Year!
