THE CEO’s BLOG
Cosmoprof North America show is only a couple months away and less than 50% of the booths are sold. Most of the “exclusive” areas like natural, CBD and others are empty. None of the major hair or nail companies are exhibiting. Can anyone tell me why the show is still going on and who will possibly attend? Cosmoprof is a true indicator of the professional beauty market and its demise. This show used to be held twice annually due to demand, new manufacturer’s entering the space, new distributors excited to sell to salons and overall growth of the industry.
What factors precipitated the demise of the pro beauty industry? I have been on this subject for a few years and it is so sad because this was once a vibrant and exciting industry. Why? It featured entrepreneurs eager to get their new products into the market; entrepreneurs went to beauty school to learn their craft whether it be hair, nails or spa and then went to open full-service salons; consumers eager to enjoy being pampered and spending time and money on beauty services and products.
Eager to cash in on the explosive growth was retailers. Diversion was already a big issue but never controlled as manufacturers loved the extra sales. Diversion was the first nail in the coffin. Then Sephora opened in 1998, Amazon Pro Beauty in 1999 and Ulta in 2000. This was the second nail in the coffin.
The third nail in the coffin was the manufacture rep groups, the same ones that called on distributors (and ironically still do). They saw the opportunity with the Big 3 and went after them. When this happened, diversion was no longer an issue for manufacturers, they went direct and controlled their products and prices. Who got screwed? Distributors and salons. Call it greed, call it whatever you want, bottom line, it’s business.
Fast forward to today and what is state of the pro beauty business? Most full-service salons are at 50-60% capacity due to the fact so many of their employees quit and moved to booth rental and even more recently due to the pandemic, work at home. Many salons have closed. Salons and spas are begging for nail techs and massage therapists. Spas that are open are only open for limited hours due to staffing issues. Salon retail is dead in the water. As I predicted long ago, services are what matters and demand for services, especially at the high end, are as good as ever.
Amazon shares are now on sale for less than $2500 a share and you don’t have to be a Prime member to buy them. What happened? They reported their slowest sales growth since 2001; Bezos bet a few billion on Rivian and that bet failed; supply chain and inflation issues; and overcapacity. However they are on track to crack $450 billion in sales this year and most likely $500 billion in 2023. Their cloud business is still soaring and their advertising unit is mostly all profits. If there is any company I would not bet against, it’s Amazon.
It’s time for a commercial break and here is one of our latest products that I love, love, love. ForPro Expert Reusable 100% Organic & Bamboo Cotton Pads are best in class and actually made with certified organic cotton. I did a bit of research and found that virtually all reusable cotton pads that claim to be organic are not. Same goes with cotton rounds. These are now available!
I was at Kroger shopping and checking out baked Frito Lay chips and a Frito Lay stocker was in the aisle. I picked up the bag of chips for $3.99 and said to him that bag is so small, it’s like a snack bag now. He said to me, “July 1 we have another price increase coming” and he couldn’t tell me if the bag was going to get smaller. Brownberry bread is over $5.00 a loaf. Food inflation is here.
It’s no wonder large chain restaurants are doing well. In some instances, it’s cheaper to go out if you don’t order alcohol. Chains have buying power and are better at keeping employees. Alas, small restaurants and small chains are closing at a record pace and this is after they survived the pandemic.
If a Supreme Court document is leaked, is anything sacred and trustful anymore?
Trump is licking his chops after a couple nice primary wins. If you had your choice of Trump or DeSantis, who would you choose?
Have you thought about chartering a bus? Don’t! Here is another industry decimated by the pandemic. What once cost $3000/month to insure a bus is now more than $7,000/month. Diesel is more than $6/gallon but the real pain is that there are no bus drivers around. It’s not like Generation Z kids are graduating high school and bragging that they are going to be a bus driver. Average pay is $200/day regardless if the driver drives two, four or eight hours and some companies are paying $300 and over just to get drivers. But even at that, they can’t find them.
©2019 Larry Gaynor. All rights reserved.